Insurance Blog

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is warning that a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center of Alex makes landfall.
The warning came as the NHC said that Alex — the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season — is moving faster to the north-northwest and is likely to become a hurricane later today:
The surge could penetrate inland as far as several miles from the shore with depth generally decreasing as the water moves inland. Near the coast…the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.”

Earlier this morning, the NHC said Alex was about 380 miles south east of Brownsville, Texas and moving NNW at 12 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 70 miles per hour.
The NHC also said Alex is expected to produce […]

Read the rest of this great post here

We’re nearly four weeks into the Atlantic hurricane season but so far the only storm activity has been in the Eastern Pacific where two hurricanes – Hurricane Celia (now Category 4) and Hurricane Darby (now Category 3) – have formed and continue to track out at sea away from land.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15 – a little earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season – and also ends November 30.
However, the Atlantic season may be about to kick into gear as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) this morning said there is a 70 percent chance that a low pressure system centered between the northeast coast of Honduras and Grand Cayman could become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
An air force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today to determine if a tropical cyclone has formed. The NHC reports:
Shower activity has become a little […]

Read the rest of this great post here

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season gets underway today and by all accounts it’s going to be a busy one and perhaps the most active since record-breaking 2005. Tomorrow Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project team will issue its latest forecast.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference last week to Reuters, William Gray, founder of the CSU storm research team said CSU will be upping its forecast for the season.
Back in April, CSU called for 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four of which were expected to be major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes. It put the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall at about 130 percent of the long-period average.
In its latest seasonal outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said this hurricane season could be one of the most active on record and underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
NOAA said there is […]

Read the rest of this great post here

–>

The Northeast United States faces an increased risk of hurricane landfall this season, according to the latest 2010 tropical forecast from WSI (Weather Services International) Corp. The warning came as WSI said it expects the 2010 hurricane season will be the most active since record-breaking 2005.
WSI says the coastline from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to Maine is under a significantly increased threat of a hurricane this season, according to its statistical landfall forecast model. In a press release WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford is quoted as saying:
Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coast states.”

Homeowners and businessowners in the Northeast would be wise to take note. Despite never making U.S. landfall and remaining hundreds of miles out at sea, Hurricane Bill, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009, ran parallel to the East […]

Read the rest of this great post here

–>

–>

The National Hurricane Center yesterday said a low pressure system centered about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda has a 30 percent chance of becoming the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The official start to the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is just a week away.
The system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms along with gale-force winds, according to an NHC bulletin issued last night. “There is a medium chance of this system becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours,” the NHC said.
By this morning meteorologists at Accuweather.com said they believed the low has little, if any, chance of developing into a true tropical system. The more likely scenario is that it takes on both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, making it a “hybrid” storm. Hybrid systems can be named as subtropical storms or depressions.
However, Accuweather.com observed that whether the system develops […]

Read the rest of this great post here

–>

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project team today upped its forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, from its December predictions. The CSU team said the predicted weakening of El Niño conditions combined with a very strong anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic are the primary reasons why it is increasing its forecast. In a season it expects will see above-average activity, the CSU team now expects 15 named storms – including eight hurricanes, four of which are expected to be major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average. There is a 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and a 44 percent chance of a Gulf Coast landfall from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville. The team also predicted an above-average (58 percent) […]

Read the rest of this great post here

Early forecasts indicate this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be above-average, so it will be interesting to hear the latest updates to those predictions from forecasters attending next week’s National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. Today’s Sarasota Herald-Tribune article by Kate Spinner points to a new study by NOAA researchers that may hold the key for forecasters making their long-range predictions. Apparently the research shows that the Atlantic and Pacific oceans act as opposites. In other words, a busy season in one ocean makes for a more tranquil season in the other. The study, by NOAA researchers Chunzai Wang and Sang-Ki Lee, is reported to be the first to demonstrate the dynamic clearly over five decades. The Sarasota Herald-Tribune states: “Last year’s quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic coincided with an active Pacific season. The reverse happened in 2005. This year, the Pacific is expected to be mild again, and the Atlantic, […]

Read the rest of this great post here

The fact that no hurricanes and only two tropical storms (Claudette and Ida) made U.S. landfall this year may be the key takeaways of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, but Colorado State University hurricane forecasters remind us to take a long-term view. In addition to a large increase in U.S. hurricane destruction in 2004, 2005 and 2008, the forecasters note that the Atlantic has seen a very large increase in major hurricanes over the past 15 years. There were an average 3.9 major hurricanes per year during the 1995-2009 period, compared to an average of 1.5 per year in the prior 25-year period (1970-1994). The CSU team says the increase is primarily the result of a multi-decadal cycle in the Atlantic, and is not directly related to global sea surface temperatures or CO2 increases. The final 2009 season tally shows a total of nine named storms occurred, the fewest named storms […]

Read the rest of this great post here

Beware the Ida of November — Hurricane Ida, that is. Though it is forecast to weaken further before making U.S. landfall, Hurricane Ida is currently a Category One hurricane and moving across the Gulf of Mexico near 16 mph. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northern Gulf coast from Pascagoula, Mississippi eastward to Indian Pass, Florida and according to the National Hurricane Center, Ida is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf coast overnight. Under the current track, that looks likely to be somewhere near Alabama before it takes a turn to the northeast toward Georgia and Florida. The timing of Ida – some 22 or so days before the official end of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is pause for thought. NOAA data show that the Atlantic basin has a very peaked season from August through October, with 78 percent of tropical storm days, 87 percent […]

Read the rest of this great post here